Strategic Context and Site-Specific Assessments
1. Bold Street (Land off Bold Street, Old Trafford)
2. Talbot Road (39 Talbot Road, Old Trafford)
3. Chester House (Boyer Street, Stretford)
4. Chester Road (Petrol Station and adjacent land, Stretford)
Considerations for Local Planning, Development and Political Context
Options Statement: Recommendations for the Prioritisation of sites
Residual Appraisal and Sensitivity Analysis for the Site 1934-2
Executive Summary
A company has identified four urban sites that could be used for housing development in Trafford. The aim of this report, therefore, is to conduct site-specific appraisals on each of the identified areas and provide an options statement. The shortage of affordable housing in Greater Manchester caused Trafford Council to find projects that help to reduce the housing inequality. Even then, only the projects which focus on appropriate sites get approval from the Council.
A developer must, thus, analyse the main features of a site before presenting a housing development proposal. MappingGM portal proved useful for this assessment by availing data on geology, landscape, socioeconomic, infrastructure, and house prices per site. The site visits also helped with the observation of site conditions and current use. Data from site visits enabled the identification of development opportunities and constraints.
Other data sources like government publications also facilitated the identification of policies that support or conflict with the project objectives. Results showed that the most appropriate site for housing development should allow residents access to the highest number of community services and facilities. Findings indicated site 1934-3 (off Bold Street) as the most appropriate for the development project. Financial appraisal and sensitivity analysis on this site revealed that the proposed project is viable.
Introduction
The purpose of this site appraisal is to rank four Trafford sites according to development priority and create an option statement. The report begins with a site-specific strategic analysis in which the proposed development sites are evaluated in order of prioritization. Data from the site visits and MappingGM portal makes the strategic assessment possible. In the second section, the local planning policies that could affect the development plan are presented. On the other hand, the options statement section identifies the selected site and the rationale. For the prioritized site, residual appraisal and sensitivity analysis are conducted in the last part of the report.
Strategic Context and Site-Specific Assessments
The sites assessed in this section are as follows:
1. Bold Street (Land off Bold Street, Old Trafford)
The land off Bold Street is referenced as 1934-2 on Trafford Brownfield Land Register 2020.
· Site Development Opportunities
AQMA areas are not marked in the site and its surroundings, meaning it has the potential of meeting the national air quality objectives. The area is also free from flooding as EA Flooding Zones 2 and 3 are not present. Other high-quality apartments are in adjacent areas to the site including Gladstone court and Alma Court. The play space, sports court, and Maher Gardens provide the open areas that residents need for recreational activities, exercise, socializing, and rest. The closest education establishment is Loreto College and a religious building (Chapel) is available. The site is accessible through Tamworth Street, Chichester Road South, Bold Street, and Moss Lane West. Bus stations are located along Chichester Road, where residents can access using walking paths from the site. Chichester Road is also a bus route. Fuel poverty is medium and the number of households in poverty is low, meaning residents can afford higher rent rates. HM Land registry by ward for this urban site is medium with average house prices ranging from £150,000 to £300,000. Zoopla “Zed-Index” HeatMap confirms that the average house price is low-to-medium. Developers may, therefore, purchase the houses, conduct improvement processes, and still make profits.
· Constraints
The area has housing sites supply but offices and industrial/warehousing are not available, meaning that residents may not have adequate employment opportunities while living on the site. Again, residents belong to two different income categories. The population’s median income (for the largest section of the site) falls within the lowest level of £10,300-£22,300. The upper section of the site and areas around Loreto College and Chichester Road have a median income ranging from £22,300-£31,600. Such income inequalities may interfere with the setting of house prices after housing development. Again, other education centres such as nurseries, and primary and secondary schools are not nearby.
2. Talbot Road (39 Talbot Road, Old Trafford)
The site is on Greater Manchester Brownfield Land Register, referenced as 1601-07. It lies between other brownfields marked as 1607 and 1601-08.
· Site Development Opportunities
The site does not contain EA Flood zones 2 and 3, implying that the risk of flooding from rivers and sea is low. The area is also near Old Trafford Bowling Club, Trafford Hall hotel, auto car crash repair (MCr Ltd), and a garage. The bowling green area contains a play space where people can socialise, rest, and exercise. For transportation and access, Talbot Road has a bus stop and is a bus route. The site residents may use Talbot Road to access the bowling green (play space), BuyamSell store, and Wudemics (an education centre). Elsinore Road may also be used by residents who want to get to Hobson aerials and satellite and the convenience store near Trafford Bar. The area is also safe as no criminal activities were reported in the area by September 2017. HM Land Registry by ward average price is £150,000-£300,000 (medium) and the number of transactions was 179-308. On Zoopla Zed-Index, the average house price is medium. Investing in the site, thus, has chances of generating profits in the future when the land’s value appreciates.
· Constraints
Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) are marked along this part of Talbot Road. That is, the local authority has declared that in these points the national air quality goals are unlikely to be accomplished. People’s health and the environment are not adequately protected along the road. Rose, Daras and Cloke (2021, p.254) argued that air pollution is harmful to human life, and causes around seven million global premature deaths. Short-term effects of air pollution exposure include worsening of asthma symptoms and poor lung functionality while respiratory diseases, diabetes, and cancer may occur in the long run. Sites marked AQMA need sustainable improvements. Although a rail network is located near the site, no rail stations have been built.
From a socioeconomic perspective, residents of this section of Talbot Road have an income median of £10,300–£22,300. The median income level is the lowest and further statistics reveal that the households here have a medium poverty level. The fuel poverty level for households is also medium. Dewilde (2021) defined fuel poverty as the incapability of households to purchase a sufficient amount of energy services, to warm their homes. Factors that cause fuel poverty include lack of energy efficiency in low-quality houses, homelessness, changes in housing market policies, and price increases due to liberalization in the energy market.
Besides, no sites have been allocated for industrial and warehousing purposes which would create meaningful employment opportunities in the area. Moreover, no parks, job or youth employment centres exist anywhere near the site. The low-income median and lack of opportunities for income generation mean that the residents may be unable to pay expensive house rent. In the area of educational establishments, only Wudemics is available. Nursery, primary, and secondary schools would increase access to educational services for the residents. Again, a tunnel that runs across this site may be inappropriate for the construction of houses and offices.
3. Chester House (Boyer Street, Stretford)
The reference number for this site on Greater Manchester Brownfield Land Register is 1601-08.
· Site Development Opportunities
No Air Quality Management Areas on the site and there are medium tree planting opportunities. The site is, therefore, safe from health risks caused by air pollution and poses no harm to human health. Also, the site and the surrounding have no EA Flooding Zones 2 and 3, meaning low chances of getting flooded by river and seawater. HM Land Register by ward is medium, meaning the average house price is £150,000-£300,000 and the average number of transactions is 179-308. On Zoopla “Zed-Index” HeatMap, the area lies within low and low-to-medium sections (with average house prices ranging from less than £100,000 to £150,000. Purchasing land on this site is less costly and may yield more profits after development because residents are capable of paying higher rent rates. The evidence of the residents’ capability is shown by the low number of households experiencing fuel poverty. Additionally, the residents’ median income is slightly higher (£22,300-£31,600). The site is highly accessible for transportation as it is surrounded by White City Way, Talbot Road, Boyer Street, and Bridgewater Way.
· Constraints
GMP Headquarters and GMP phase 2 building are currently on the site. Tor any planned developments, therefore, these buildings and structures may have to be demolished and relocation may be necessary. From the site, residents lack access to parks, gardens, and open spaces where people could get employment opportunities and perform recreational activities. Educational establishments and religious buildings are also not available on the site and its immediate neighbourhood.
4. Chester Road
Greater Manchester Brownfield Land Register’s reference number for the site is 2234.
· Site Development Opportunities
No EA Flooding Zones 2 and 3 exist on both the site and its surroundings, meaning the low exposure to flooding by rivers and sea. Accessibility to the site is possible through Nuttall Street, Stretford Road, and Chester Road. Nuttall Street links the residents of the site to both Chester Road and Stretford Road. Bus stations are available on Stretford Road and Chester Road, which are both bus routes. Also, the site has high Greater Manchester Accessibility levels. Across Nuttall Street, people can access PF Jones Thule shop, diesel services, and Bailey Italia coffee shop. Manchester City FC Supporters Club members may also access cross Nuttall Street and use Manchester Street to get to the place. Zoopla Zed-Index shows medium average hose prices. On HM Land Registry by ward average price is £150,000-£300,000 and the number of transactions is medium, ranging from 179 to 308. Developing the site may, thus, generate profits.
· Constraints
AQMAs are marked along Chester Road and Stretford Road, meaning that parts of the site may not meet the national air quality requirements. Such sections are also unsafe for residents as they expose people to health risks. Again, the site only has supplies of housing and office sites. Warehousing and industrial sites supply are not available on the sites and their neighbourhood. Shortage of space for such amenities minimises the chances residents have for generating income. Households in this area have medium levels of fuel poverty and they faced multiple deprivations in 2019. The median income for the site and its surround is also the lowest at £10,300-£22,300. All these circumstances point to the fact that the people here may not afford rent if house prices are high.
Considerations for Local Planning, Development and Political Context
For new site developments in Trafford, Trafford Council (2012, p.91) requires the site to be large enough to adequately contain the proposed facilities. If any of the selected sites are incapable of accommodating the houses (and offices) the Council may not approve the development plans. An appropriate site should also be located in an area where the local community members can access essential facilities (Trafford Council 2012, p. 91). Developments in sites that do not allow access to facilities such as open spaces or educational centres may, thus, be rejected.
The Council also requires that necessary improvements be done to the social infrastructure such as schools or retail and health facilities to promote sustainable development (Trafford Council 2012, p.100). Development plans that solely focus on houses could be rendered inappropriate. Again, the Council only approves new site developments that do not harm amenities in the immediate neighbourhood. Additionally, Trafford Council (2012, p.101) stated that the Council only supports development(s) with the capacity to minimise inequality, create regeneration gains, lead to evident sustainable communities, and positively contribute to the attainment of strategic and place objectives.
Options Statement: Recommendations for the Prioritisation of sites
Housing developments in Trafford should help Trafford Council to meet its inequality reduction objectives. The objectives include improved access to employment centres (like parks and town centres; better transportation modes (with pedestrian and cyclists tracks); cultural and community facilities; educational and training establishments; safety (controlled criminal activity); and green spaces or facilities that encourage residents to make healthier lifestyle decisions (Trafford Council 2012, p. 101).
The best site for housing development is, thus, the one that has several of these features (if not all). Site 1934-2, off Bold Street, meets all these conditions. It has OS Open Greenfield Sites (play space, Maher gardens, sports club, and sports facilities at Loreto College); Jobs Centres at the intersection of Chichester Road and Moss Lane West; no crime reports; post-16 education centre and Loreto college; and pedestrian/cyclists pathways to all the facilities in its surround.
Next are sites 1601-07 and 1601-08. Site 1601-07 meets the conditions set by the Council except that it lacks established pedestrian or cyclist pathways and job centres. It has Bowling Green, wudecs education centre, and is safe from criminal behaviours. Site 1601-08, on the other hand, has no green spaces and educational establishments but has pathways for pedestrians and cyclists, safety from criminal activity, and residents can get employment opportunities at White City Retail Park (across White City Way). The site that meets the least requirements is 2234, as it only allows access to Darwen business centre across Chester Road.
Site residents may get employment opportunities at the business centre but the place may not be accessible to all site dwellers. Other site disadvantages include lack of parks or job centres, educational establishments, pedestrian/cyclist tracks, and antisocial behavior along Nuttal Street. This site could be discarded because buildings eliminate the ecological environment leading to a shortage of parking spaces, traffic congestion, and degradation of the environment (Zhuang & Zhao 2015, p.200).
OS Open Greenfield Sites or urban green spaces provide residents with avenues for socialising and engaging in cultural or recreational activities (Lee, Jordan, & Horse 2015, p.132). The aesthetics offered by OS Open Greenfield sites facilitate the attainment of economic goals by maximising and maintaining the value of that property.
The establishment of the green spaces also gives residents a sense of security and eliminates their perception of the possibility of crime, as it involves the greening of urban lands that remain vacant. The perceptions of safety in clean and greener environments also encourage physical activity, such as exercise (Lee et al. 2015, p 133). Green spaces also have environmental benefits like counteracting the urban heat effect, which decreases energy expenses for purpose of cooling buildings. Air pollution also declines in the presence of green spaces due to the absorption of carbon dioxide.
On the other hand, transport systems link the physical urban components to promote the movements of freights and passengers. Street networks or paths taken when moving from one location to the next highly determine movement patterns for both vehicles and pedestrians. According to Davies and Johnson (2015, p.482), the street segment connecting two neighbourhood junctions (like Nuttal links to Stretford Road and Chester Road) allows for several social processes and improves accessibility or permeability. Wang, Hang and de Vries (2019, p.924) added that the integration of transportation and land use supports sustainable urban development. Ease of access is important in locations set aside for commercial, family (all sizes), and industrial areas (Wang et al. 2019, p.926).
Also, the quality of social amenities in a location affects people’s relocation decisions. Aliyu and Abdu (2016) explained that quality and proximity to public schools help people to choose whether they stay in a given location or not. Education is necessary for the development of society and every parent wants to take their children to school. Access to prestigious schools also influences housing prices (Aliyu & Abdu 2016, p.2).
Overall, the rent charged increases with accessibility to shopping and employment centres or schools. Other neighbourhood-based factors contributing to rising house prices include the size and type of dwelling, room numbers and the size of land it occupies (Wittowsky, Hoehveld, Welsch, & Steier 2020, p.45). The walkability of the neighbourhood, crime rates, the racial composition of the population, green spaces/parks, and walkability of sidewalks also affect the prices of houses.
Residual Appraisal and Sensitivity Analysis for the Site 1934-2
The selected housing development site is 1934-2, off Bold Street, which is currently a scrubland.
The land area is approximately 27,318 square meters (or 294,048.5 square feet)
i. Residual Appraisal
Using Table 3 by Trafford Council (2021, p.17) residential value is calculated as follows:
Apartment type | £ Value (per square feet) | Possible units on the site (70,048.5 sq. ft. for paths and parking areas) | Residential sales value (or Gross development value/GDV) |
1 bed | 370 | 1,500 (63.4 sq. ft.) | 95,100 x 370 = 35,187,000 |
2 bed | 360 | 750 (89 sq. ft.) | 66,750 x 360 = 24,030,000 |
3 bed | 350 | 500 (124 sq. ft.) | 62,500 x 350 = 21,875,000 |
| Total | 294,048.5 sq. ft. | 81,092,000 |
Cost of purchase
According to the HM Land registry by ward, the average house prices on this site range from £150,000 to £300,000.
Cost of purchase 
= £225,000
Development Costs
Activity | Cost |
Built cost (£147.53) | £33,046,720 |
Abnormal costs (£3.75 per square ft.) | £840,000 |
Contributions to residential services or S106 obligations (public open spaces, health, sports facilities, and education) | £29,919,047 |
Sales, marking, and legal fees (2.5% of GDV) | £81,092,000*2.5% = £2,027,300 |
Total | £65,833,097 |
Residual value
Residual value = £81,092,000 – (£225,000 + £65,833,097)
= £15,258,903
The outcome shows that development profits are attainable from this project.
ii. Sensitivity Analysis
The Council states that qualifying housing development sites within Area Action Plan should avail at least 25% of affordable housing (Trafford Council 2021, p.6). In this case, the residual value (£15,258,903) represents 25%. A profit margin of 6% on GDV is applied for the affordable housing factor in this assessment.
From the table above, the worst-case scenario is 6.5% on the development margin and the corresponding profit is £12,550,447.72. The development plan is viable and has reduced risk as the worst-case scenario is a positive value.
